Tác động của AFTA đối với nguồn thu ngân sách chính phủ, thương mại quốc tế và đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài của CHDCND Lào
Finding from the Dissertation
PhD Student: ATHSAPHANGTHONG SIPHANDONE
Topic: Impacts of AFTA on Government Revenue, External Trade, and FDI of Lao PDR
Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Tran Tho Dat
This dissertation aims to analyze the progress on the economic development before and after joining ASEAN of Lao PDR from 1990 to 2012; and to investigate the impacts of AFTA participation on the Lao PDR’s government revenue, external trade, and flows of FDI by employing simply descriptive and econometric approaches.
The significant findings reveal that Lao PDR’s economy has continuously grown with robust growth rates contributed mainly by to hydropower and mining sectors. The results also indicates that the GDP per capita of Lao PDR has gradually increased and been classified as a lower middle-income country in 2011. During 2001-2005 and 20062012, it is seen that the general tendency of output structure has changed from agricultural-based economy towards industrialization in line with the GOL’s economic development strategy. AFTA participation has moderately affected the GOL’s revenue since low tariff rates have induced more demand for the imports, reduced smugglings and promoted legal trade. For the external trade of Lao PDR, the exports have tended to increase after joining ASEAN. It is seen that the external trade deficit of Lao PDR has been mitigated after joining ASEAN since the exports have increased faster than the imports. FDI has made a positive contribution to the manufacture of goods, economic growth and the restructuring of the economy. Major FDI to Lao PDR in recent years comes from Thailand, China, Vietnam, and Australia, Many projects were invested in industry and handicraft, followed by services, agriculture, and mining. The empirical evidence results illustrate that AFTA implementation has a positive impacts on the exports, imports, FDI, and government revenue of Lao PDR.